http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/ 投资管理咨询 大德股典 大德股典 http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3739594.html <![CDATA[ <DIV><FONT size=4>通知：</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp; 由于本博文字经常被中华网不经笔者同意删除，所以将转到搜弧网上发表，请到以下网址看笔者文字，多谢参读。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><A href="http://ddgd10000.blog.sohu.com/"><FONT face=楷体_GB2312 size=4>http://ddgd10000.blog.sohu.com/</FONT></A></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=4></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>]]> 星期五, 19 九月 2008 08:36:02 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3739594.html 2008-09-19T08:36:02Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3739536.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“皇恩浩荡 鸡犬升天” （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="20" Month="9" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周六）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><FONT size=3>周五走势回顾</FONT></SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>周四管理层推出三大实质性利好，极大鼓舞了市场人气，沪深两市大幅高开，沪指开盘即大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.06%</SPAN>，在金融股全部涨停的推动下，沪指继续走高，午后<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场个股已全线涨停。沪指收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2075.09</SPAN>点，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.46%</SPAN>，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>96</SPAN>年涨跌停制后第二大涨幅。两市合计成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>674</SPAN>亿元，与上一交易日相比略有上升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">值得注意的是，成交量在个股涨停后大为萎缩，反映投资者预期反市会继续反弹，由于“国家队”的入场对市场信心明显增强，投资者惜售心态明显，在涨停点位出现缩量说明所有投资者都认可利好的实质性。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><FONT size=3><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">下周走势预计</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周五大盘的井喷走势，宣告大盘阶段性底部形成，股指短线还有继续反弹空间，投资者对后市仍有好的预期，因而下周市场仍有望延续反弹行情，指数将被进一步推高，但个股将出现明显分化，热点股票还将继续上涨，但一些跟风品种将逐渐原形毕露。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">至于大盘则不用太过担心，因为再有非理性下跌，国库资金（汇金公司）将会发力托起，因而中期后市无忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">但是同时清醒认识到经济基本面仍有很多在确定因素存在，同时大小非问题仍未解决，大盘只是反弹而非反转，市场反弹高度仍有限。中长期投资者入市正当时，短线投资者则应注意回调风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">到股市来捡钱吧！！！</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: fuchsia">目前多数个股严重超跌，基本无下降空间，同时政府强力救市政策将底部探明，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1802</SPAN>点成为中长期底部的概率极大，而后市升幅则无限，暴跌“消灭”了一群人，必然也将成就一群人，不要再听股评家讲什么技术、趋势、利空、利多，尽管入市，股市已经是遍地地黄金，又到了赚大钱的时候，在九、十两个月入市买上一只业绩还算可以的股票，放上一年，幸运的话翻翻无忧，运气差一点<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>的收益还是有的。</SPAN></B></FONT></SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P></DIV>]]> 星期五, 19 九月 2008 08:27:46 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3739536.html 2008-09-19T08:27:46Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3726015.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">到股市来捡钱吧！！！ （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="18" Month="9" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周四）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">重大资讯</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、全球央行紧急救市，两天输血逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>亿美元；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美股高收，美联储将向陷于破产边缘的美国国际集团<SPAN lang=EN-US>(AIG)</SPAN>提供<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>亿美元紧急贷款；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、国际油价继续下滑，盘中触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><FONT size=3>周三走势回顾</FONT></SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>沪深两市早盘惯性低开，其后在<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh600028/nc.shtml" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>中国石化</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh601857/nc.shtml" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>中国石油</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN>双双走高的带动下小幅反弹，沪指两度逼近<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>点关口，股指随后震荡回落。午后随着银行股跌幅的扩大，两市再度下行，沪指创出本轮下跌新低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1922.68</SPAN>点，多只银行股盘中再度跌停。沪指收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1929.05</SPAN>点，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>57.59</SPAN>点，两市合计成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>567</SPAN>亿元，下上一交易日基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">但是值得注意的是除银行、地产、石化版块外，盘中多家个股出现大单买入现象，说明从去年撤出股市的资金已经开始回到股市，已经开始逢低建仓了。因而对后市应持乐观的态度，天虽然仍然很黑，曙光在前了。</SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></U></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><FONT size=3><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">周四走势预计</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>由</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">于雷曼兄弟破产利空已经为市场逐渐消化，外围股市或转好，银行股经过连续两天的跌停，做空动能已经基本释放，消息面上基本无利空出现，预计周四市场将出现反弹，但由于市场处于极弱环境，反弹高度应有限。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作上在市场未明确启稳的时刻，多看少动，仍以观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><FONT size=3><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">幸福的监管层继任者</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">市场经过连续的大跌，指数跌幅近<SPAN lang=EN-US>70%</SPAN>，市场可以想到的利空都已经在走势上反映，因而市场预计现管理层基本确定下课无疑，只好背着无力维持市场稳定这个黑锅走人了。多数个股已经基本已经是跌无可跌了，不能跌，盘一阵子想不涨也难，而做为市场继任监管者，只剩下静侯表彰了，幸福的享受快乐时光。想尚主席也可怜，没有激流勇退，只能是黯然离去了。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">到股市来捡钱吧！！！</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: fuchsia">目前多数个股严重超跌，基本无下降空间，而后市升幅则无限，暴跌“消灭”了一群人，必然也将成就一群人，不要再听股评家讲什么技术、趋势、利空、利多，尽管入市，股市已经是遍地地黄金，又到了赚大钱的时候，在九、十两个月入市买上一只业绩还算可以的股票，放上一年，幸运的话翻翻无忧，运气差一点<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>的收益还是有的。</SPAN></B></FONT></SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P></DIV>]]> 星期三, 17 九月 2008 09:41:32 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3726015.html 2008-09-17T09:41:32Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3723198.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">东方明珠<SPAN lang=EN-US>---</SPAN>上海版块、世博概念龙头品种 （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="9" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周二）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原因有以下几点：</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、世博会期间真实受益，各项业务有望实质提升；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、从现在到世博期间业绩有望连续上升，便于中长期运作；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、总股本<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>亿股，便于大资金进出，得到机构投资者的认可；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、大股东实力雄厚，对公司大力支持，世博会演艺中心由上市公司运作体现支持；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、上海旅游、文化传媒龙头有望得到市场追捧；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">在宏观经济前景不明朗的条件下，上海世博会是证券市场普遍认可的投资机会，也只有这个“故事”为所有投资者的认可，近期股市连续暴跌，而多家上海本地股逆市走强，也说明市场对上海版块后市看好，而东方明珠则有条件成为龙头品种。有券商预计世博期间东方明珠每股收益有望达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4</SPAN>元，而龙头品种可以给予更高的市盈率（<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>倍），因而在未来两年东方明珠股价有望达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>元左右，具有较大的投资价值。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">该股近期连续放量也说明有资金在介入，目前股价是否底部仍有待验证，但后市具有投资价值则无可厚非，新入市资金在市场启稳后介入该股应有不错收益。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期三, 17 九月 2008 03:45:01 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3723198.html 2008-09-17T03:45:01Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3715144.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">降息利好或助大盘收红，但后市不乐观 （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="9" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周二）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">重大资讯</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、央行降息<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.27</SPAN>个百分点，下调部分金融机构存款准备金率一个百分点。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">监管层希望阻止<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股急跌，但是对银行股来说是利空，后果待观察</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美第四大投行雷曼兄弟破产，美股大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>504</SPAN>点，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>911</SPAN>以来最大单日跌幅，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">央及全球股市暴跌</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、国际油价暴跌，破<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元大关，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>95</SPAN>美元，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">有利于改善中国的通胀形式，但或收发国内成品油价下调，石化双熊利空；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><FONT size=3><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">走势预计</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>由</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">于雷曼兄弟破产，监管层担心<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场随美股暴跌，紧急推出降息利好，希望能阻止大盘的急跌，对股市来说是实质利好，今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场有望收出阳线，指数收红。但是，由于贷款利息下调，而存款利率未下调，直接减少银行股的利润，对银行股来说是利空，因而预计银行股今日会大跌，同时国际油价大跌，国内油价下调越来越近，石化双熊股价也很有可能收绿，由于石化双熊和银行股在指数中占比很大，因而今日市场难以走出大涨的局面，沪深两市以小阳收盘的概率很大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期二, 16 九月 2008 00:50:37 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3715144.html 2008-09-16T00:50:37Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3712347.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">政府救市时间预计及救市措施分析 （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="9" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周一）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一、政府会不会救市？</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股市从高点下跌以来，跌幅超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>点，跌掉三分之二，对实体经济的不利影响尚未完全体现出来，国家金融秩序也尚未出现危机，但可以肯定的是如果跌势不能得到控制，资本市场将会出现崩溃局面，进而引发金融体系的崩溃，或会引起整体经济的崩溃，后果不堪想象，<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>年的美国股市危机和前不久发生的越南金融危机都是很恐怖的例子。这种不可想象的后果，相信政府也会看到，因而可以肯定的说，政府会出手对资本市场的发展进行干预，也就是政府会救市，这是不容置疑的。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">二、政府为何迟迟未出手？</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、救市时机尚未成熟。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">当前环境下，政策力量无法阻止股市向下趋势；主要是石化双熊目前股价虚高，政策力量无法阻止价值回归，中石油股价跌到大约<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>元左右，中石化跌到<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>元左右才能基本有投资价值，由于石化熊占指数比重过大，只有在他们基本走稳后，出台救市政策才有意义。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.24</SPAN>行情就是在石化双熊未调到位的情况下，救市无果反而引来更加猛烈的下跌，教训深刻。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、通胀形势仍然严峻；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、执行层未完成改组；</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">由于奥运期间股市大跌，未能完成奥运期间维稳局面，证券市场管理部门成为很少几个未完成奥运任务的部门之一，最高决策层问责必然。执行层人心不稳，无法完成救市任务。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、股改是否成功争论未果；</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">对<SPAN lang=EN-US>05</SPAN>年启动的全流通股改的成功与否仍存争议，市场普遍认为：大小非的疯狂减持引发的股市暴跌从一个层面证明了股改并不完全成功，至少是存在明显缺陷；而管理层则不愿承认股改缺陷，希望通过<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>年左右的时间消化大小非问题，管理层认为市场的下跌也是消化过程中必然的现象。但是可能引发的资本市场崩溃甚至国家金融崩溃则是管理层所没有想到的，因而对股改的统一认识成为救市的必然条件。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">三、政府何时会启动救市？</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">笔者认为：政府启动救市大幕的时间会在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份。原因有以下四点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一、石化双熊会调整到位；预计到<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份，石化双熊股价分别会在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>元和<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>元左右，基本具有投资价值，市场的作空力量减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">二、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月大盘指数会调整到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1600-1800</SPAN>点之间，指数下行无力，做空力量已经有效施放，市场内在的做多意愿强烈，救市水到渠成。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">三、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月证券市场监管层是否进行整合，基本可确定，有力于救市措施的执行。没有一个强有力的市场监管层，市场真正走稳很难。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">四、届时市场对股改存在的问题会形成基本的共识：基本成功但缺陷明显，需要后绪措施进一步完善。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">四、政府如何救市？<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">笔者认为：本轮下跌根本原因还是证券市场出现严重的供求不平稀局面，供远大于求，救市无非也还是从供求方面来解决，不外乎是增加对股票的需求和减少股票的供给两方面着手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">预计政府增加股票需求的措施主要有以下几个选择：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、增强投资者对股市稳定向好的信心，从而增加需求；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主要通过减税等手段是刺激经济发展，改变市场对上市公司未来业绩过分悲观的局面、完善新股发行等证券市场建设等。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、完善公募基金的运营方式，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">由目前按市值计提管理费的方式，变更为这按盈利比例计提佣金的模式，减少公募基金的做空动能。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、引入新资金入市、下调存款准备金率等措施增加市场的资金供给。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">预计政府减少股票供给的措施有以下两点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、明确表示减少新股发行，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一段时间内减少新股的供应；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 23.65pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 1; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、加强对大小非和股改后上市限售股的管理，</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">延缓其进入二级市场的时间，将大小非二次发售由可选择变成必须，采取措施分流限售股的入市步伐。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期一, 15 九月 2008 06:58:50 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3712347.html 2008-09-15T06:58:50Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3691137.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油价下调传闻引发股市暴跌 （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="12" Month="9" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周五）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一、周四走势回顾</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">重大资讯</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、上市公司债务重组收益计入当期利润的行为有望被制止</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">，弱市重组版块炒做受制，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">市场活跃因素再减，利空</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、央行行长周小川表示不能放松对通货膨胀的警惕</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">刺激经济方案受制，利空</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、油价收跌逼近<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元大关，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">引发市场传闻国内油价将下调，导致石化双熊近期暴跌；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">走势概述</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>沪深两市低开，开盘后有所上扬，但遭遇抛盘回落，沪指盘中跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>点整数关口，午后中石油、工行继续上演跳水走势带动股指盘中再现快速下挫走势，深成指午后开盘不久便再度创出熊市调整新低，并盘中失守<SPAN lang=EN-US>6900</SPAN>点整数关口，沪指也在跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>点整数关口后创出<SPAN lang=EN-US>2070.43</SPAN>点新低。沪指终盘报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2079</SPAN>点，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>71</SPAN>点，创出收盘价新低，两市合计成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>394</SPAN>亿元，与昨日基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">下跌原因</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、市场传闻由于国际油价下跌，国内油价有可能下调，</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">导致石化双熊股价连续大跌；</SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、招行永隆收购案巨额浮亏，</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">引发金融版块大跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、国内楼价将进一步下跌，引发地产版块暴跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周四再次暴跌进一步验证重组证监会是当前稳定市场的最大利好，其他任何的信息都无法阻止市场的非理性下跌。只有一个公正、诚信、善意、勇于面对现实的证监会才能使市场走向稳定，否则跌势难止。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">二、周五走势预计</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">市场成交低迷，观望心态浓厚。上证指数下跌趋势依然明显，有加速迹象，预计明日大盘仍将维持震荡盘跌走势，交易量也会维持较低水平。但由于近期连续暴跌或在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>点整数关口上方引发持术性反弹，但不可过高期望。由于基金重仓股仍有向下调整要求，后市不走势仍然悲观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">在趋势仍没有有效扭转之前，操作上仍要快进快出，注意控制仓位，注意本金安全，不宜对短线反弹期望过高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #ff6600; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">近期下跌主根是大盘股连续做空产生，小盘股已经基本维持盘整走势，资金低吸筹码明显。近期走势有点类似于<SPAN lang=EN-US>07</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份的市场，不过刚好相反，从另一个层面验证公募基金信誉扫地，成为破坏市场稳定的主要力量，有必要对公募基金的运营进行反思，当然这种反思只有在证监会重组后才会成为可能。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">因而关注消息面的变化，如有确定性的重大利好，如最高决策层表态或证监会重组等入市抢反弹，否则以看为主，切忌认为股价低而抢反弹，熊市中没有最低只有更低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">版块上仍以上海本地股为关注对象，多家个股建仓迹象明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期四, 11 九月 2008 09:04:52 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3691137.html 2008-09-11T09:04:52Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3686315.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周四仍将延续震荡盘跌的中期趋势 （</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日周四）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">一、周三走势回顾</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">走势概述</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>受美股大跌影响，沪深两市周三双双低开。沪指开盘后震荡下跌，盘中一度低见<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>点，随着<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份宏观经济数据的出炉，沪指触底反弹，最大涨幅逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>点。由于量能并没有同步放大，下午抛盘不断涌出，指数在空方阻力下再度回落。截至收盘，沪指涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>点报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2150</SPAN>点。两市合计成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>418</SPAN>亿元，比周二有所放大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三的冲高回落进一步验证重组证监会是当前稳定市场的最大利好，其他任何的信息都无法阻止市场的非理性下跌。只有一个公正、诚信、善意、勇于面对现实的证监会才能使市场走向稳定，否则跌势难止。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">二、周四走势预计</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三股指在反弹触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线后一路震荡走低<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>维持震荡整固态势<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>量能并未有效放大，显示跟风盘态度消极。弱市的基础没有变，未来仍有考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>大关的可能性，反弹减磅是理性选择。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">目前市场的下跌用技术面分析无法解释无穷尽的下跌，现在的市场要想走好，只有政府出台强有力的措施，市场自身的力量无法改变下跌趋势，由于周三晚间消息面相对平静，预计周四大盘继续寻底之旅，终盘收跌难以避免。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">关注消息面的变化，如有确定性的重大利好，如最高决策层表态或证监会重组等入市抢反弹，否则以看为主，切忌认为股价低而抢反弹，熊市中没有最低只有更低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">版块上仍以上海本地股为关注对象，多家个股建仓迹象明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期三, 10 九月 2008 13:57:01 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3686315.html 2008-09-10T13:57:01Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3679553.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">通胀压力减轻难提市场人气 （</SPAN></B><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="9" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</SPAN></B></st1:chsdate><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周三）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一、周二走势回顾</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">重大资讯</SPAN></U></B><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国证监会<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日发布的《证券公司业务范围审批暂行规定（草案）》，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">或是为融资融券业务推出探路；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、周小川：美国救助两房利好中国投资者，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">潜台词或是政府应救市；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto">走势概述</SPAN></U></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>沪深两市周二震荡整理。市场预期国际油价下跌，发改委有可能下调油价，早盘受中石油和中石化拖累一度下跌到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2114</SPAN>点，创下近两年来新低。午后，随着石化双熊跌幅收窄，沪指延续早间尾盘升势展开绝地反击，指数翻红并维持震荡走势。终盘报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2145</SPAN>点，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">二、周三走势预计</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周三包括<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>在内的<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份宏观经济数据将出台，市场预期各指标都将出现继续回落，通胀和宏观调控的压力减少，但是熊市环境下，市场忧虑经济增长放缓，上市公司业绩下降，或仍被解读为利空，至少不会当做利好对待。由于市场成交非常低迷，加速下跌局面没有作保改观，后市仍不容乐观，预计周三市场仍以震荡调整行情为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">关注消息面的变化，如有确定性的重大利好，如最高决策层表态或证监会重组等入市抢反弹，否则以看为主，切忌认为股价低而抢反弹，熊市中没有最低只有更低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">版块上仍以上海本地股为关注对象，多家个股建仓迹象明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期二, 09 九月 2008 11:04:11 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3679553.html 2008-09-09T11:04:11Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3674693.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">倡议：共同呼吁最高决策层重组监管层！<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-line-height-alt: 13.5pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 22pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">暴跌原因</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-ascii-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312"><FONT face="Times New Roman">—</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“二次发售意见稿”打草惊蛇 （</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日周二）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 13.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">一、周一走势回顾</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">重大资讯</SPAN></U></B><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美国政府接管房利美和房地美</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，此举导致除中国之外的所有股市暴涨；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、招商证券通过发审会</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、中金所：从未发表关于股指期货上市时间的谈话，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">引发股指期货版块几乎全部跌停；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">走势概述</SPAN></U></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">由于二次发售机制意见稿出台，打草惊蛇，大小非加快了出逃的速度，沪指早盘在金融股的拉抬下一度高摸<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>点，但随后由于<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh600028/nc.shtml" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #333333; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>石化</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN>双熊大幅跳水，沪指失守<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>点大关。午后，沪指在石化双熊的拖累下继续走低，金融、地产、券商、期货股大幅下跌，引发沪指再度跳水，指数接连创新低。沪指报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2143</SPAN>点，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>59</SPAN>点，创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>个月以来的收盘新低；深成指盘中跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>点大关。两市合计成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>411</SPAN>亿元，仍维持阴跌走势，下跌动能主要体现为场内资金杀跌，并无资金入场低吸筹码，后期走势仍很悲观。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.24" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><U><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #d9d9d9; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: gray-15 auto; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">暴跌原因</SPAN></U></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周一证监会出台旨在控制大小非的二次发售机制，因美国政府接管房地美和房利美而导致全球股市暴涨的大环境下，出乎所有人的意料，<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场仍以暴跌收市，再创新低，而且杀跌动能强劲，那么暴跌原因何在呢？笔者认为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">有两种可能</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">一种是有一股旨在打垮中国股市的力量在兴风作浪，阴谋通过<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场暴跌谋利，正在逐步撤出的热钱有这种动力</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">另一种就是市场和管理层的博奕导致，由于不仅政府迟迟没有作为救市，而且屡有破坏市场稳定的举动，市场以连续暴跌逼宫，促使政府出台实际性的救市措施；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">笔者认为第一种可能存在，但根本上还是第二种可能性更大一些，周末出台二次发售意见稿，市场仍在暴跌应对，说明出台文件作用有限，同时说明诚信缺失的证监会已经没有能力维护市场的稳定，仍是笔者观点，此刻问责证监会，重组管理层是最大的利好，让我们试目以待：是王歧山下课还是尚福林下课，或时间就在最近。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">二、周二走势预计</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现在市场的下跌基本是一种非理性的恐慌性下跌，用基本面分析和技术分析都无法解释这波下跌，无相似于“美国政府接管两房”的非常措施无法阻止下跌趋势，投资者仍多看少动，如无强力政策，静等自由落体解地为止。地在那里呢？笔者认为如果达到以下几个指标中两个以上就可确认：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国石油下跌到<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.5</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>(07</SPAN>年每股收益<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.75</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,10</SPAN>倍市盈率<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、深发展下跌到<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元（<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>倍净价比）<SPAN lang=EN-US>;3\</SPAN>万科下跌到<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>(10</SPAN>倍市盈率<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">短期博弈跌深反弹仍需谨慎，依然要以确定性为主导，中长期估值水平趋于合理，加上对调控政策的乐观预期，价值投资机会和结构性博弈的机会也随之增多。对于周期性，关注宏观调控的放松或者内需启动的受益行业；非周期性行业一旦回调过度，可以逢低买入。中长期布局<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股的时机已渐渐来临。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: fuchsia; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: &#718;&#805;; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">关注消息面的变化，如有确定性的重大利好，如最高决策层表态或证监会重组等入市抢反弹，否则以看为主，切忌认为股价低而抢反弹，熊市中没有最低只有更低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期一, 08 九月 2008 14:30:55 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080411/132179/200809/3674693.html 2008-09-08T14:30:55Z